An Underrated Sire About To Take Off

There is a cautionary saying in trading circles that goes, “The graveyards of Wall Street are full of traders that were right too soon.” Essentially, it is a warning that it isn't necessarily enough to be right, one must be right at the right time in order to succeed.

The same wisdom can very much be applied to commercial breeders who are looking for value at the lower end of the nomination fee ladder. Groundwork and research can lead to the identification of a stallion that is underrated based on their achievements and seems a value proposition at their current fee. However, even if the breeder is proven to have been 100% correct in their assessment of that stallion in the fullness of time, they are unlikely to get fully rewarded in the sales ring unless their timing is right.

So, how is a breeder to find a value stallion and know when the right time to support them is? A fortnight ago, the appeal of using Dandy Man in 2016 was discussed in this space (click here), and he is a classic case of what to look for. He is a stallion that has shown the ability to get the job done from relatively limited opportunities and has bigger and better crops that are about to hit the track for him in the next couple of seasons. This makes 2016 the right time to take a chance on him in the hopes of him becoming more widely appreciated by the market in the time between one's mare being covered and when the resulting offspring is sold as either a foal or a yearling. Whether he takes off to the commercial heights that Kodiac has in recent years remains to be seen, but all the evidence suggests he has an excellent chance of proving to be a good value decision for those that weigh in with him.

Another stallion with a sneakier but not dissimilar profile to Dandy Man that also ticks the aforementioned boxes is Camacho, who will stand for €7,500 at Morristown Lattin Stud in Kildare. The reason I suggest he is a sneakier proposition than Dandy Man is that while he has been covering mares for almost twice as long as Dandy Man, he hasn't had as many opportunities and his case needs a bit more explaining.

Camacho produced just 99 live foals in his first three crops and while he made a positive start with his first runners, he didn't capture the imagination of breeders straight away. Following a rush of mares in 2010 that produced 76 live foals in 2011, his support dropped substantially in the years that followed, with him producing just four live foals in 2013. Indeed, this lack of support saw him switched to Mickley Stud in England for the 2013 season.

However, 2013 was also the year that his biggest crop of 2011 hit the track and that increased support translated to increased success on the track, with him having his best-ever year with his 2-year-olds, in addition to his older horses also having a very good year. Those results saw him return to Morristown Lattin for 2014 at a fee of €7,500 with a renewed momentum behind him that yielded 82 live foals in 2015. The support for him continued to grow this year, with him covering 118 mares at a fee of €7,500.

Thus, the case for using Camacho in 2016 and/or 2017 is a clear one. Considering that he has only had 240 live foals in his first seven seasons which are now of racing age, all of which were sired at nomination fees of no more than €4,000; the fact that he has produced five horses that have earned Racing Post Ratings of 105 or more as well as 12 other horses that have run to an RPR of 90 or more showcases his merits as a stallion.

In terms of commercial appeal, another factor to consider is that Camacho has also been done no harm at all by the exploits of his half-brother Showcasing, who has established himself as one of the more promising young sires in Great Britain in the last two years.

To bring the discussion back to the matter of timing for those that are considering breeding their mare to Camacho in 2016, his much-improved crops in terms of quality and quantity are imminent. The first of those improved crops have just gone through the sale ring as foals. They established an average and median price of 18,540gns and 15,135gns, respectively, from 26 foals sold, which compares very favorably to his average and median of 8,661gns and 6,979gns respectively from 19 foals sold from his previous biggest foal crop of 2011.

Click the table below to enlarge: 

For those that send mares to Camacho in 2016, the resulting offspring will be selling as foals just after Camacho's first improved crop has raced as 2-year-olds in 2017. If those breeders wait until those offspring are yearlings, Camacho will have had two improved crops on the track by the time the 2018 yearling sales come around.

Of course, nothing can ever be guaranteed, but with the promise of his best very much being yet to come, the odds are in Camacho's favor more than most and the next two seasons are the right time to take a chance on him.

Feedback: Kevin Blake at @kevinblake2011 (or garyking@thetdn.com).

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